This is the second video in our series on using data to project revenue, this time focusing on single tickets.
We've all been there: using the revenue from a past show or exhibit as the budget for a future one.
But how often does that approach lead to accurate projections?
Let me start by asking this:
Have you ever looked at the single ticket revenue from a past show or exhibit and used that as your budget for a future event?
How often does that number end up being close to reality?
Typically, this approach leads to large variances, either up or down, or sometimes, even budgeting more revenue than you have seats available to sell.
The pitfall of using past revenue as a benchmark is that it assumes every show or exhibit is the same, with the same demand.
But we all know that's rarely the case.
Time of year, similar programming in proximity to your event, and changing economic conditions in your community can greatly impact ticket sales.
So, what's the solution?
Building a wholistic single ticket revenue budget based on data.
Instead of starting with revenue, begin by estimating the number of tickets you expect to sell for each program and multiply that by your average ticket price.
Let's illustrate this with an example.
Imagine you anticipate selling 1,500 tickets for your upcoming event at an average price of $30.
That's a projected revenue of $45,000.
It's a straightforward approach that aligns your budget with your expectations.
But that’s not the end of the process.
It’s easy to estimate on the high side when you’re looking at individual events in a vacuum.
However, doing this is the fastest way to create an inflated budget for the season.
After you have projected your ticket units for each event, add them up and compare that bottom line number to the total number of tickets sold for that series in prior seasons.
Is the total number of tickets reasonable?
If your projected number of tickets for the season is 5,000, but the most tickets your organization has sold in a single season is 3,000, you need to call a time out and ensure you have the programming and marketing plans to justify the higher number.
Otherwise, revise your individual events down so the bottom-line number is more consistent with recent seasons.
So, here's the key takeaway:
Data-driven projections provide a more accurate foundation for your single ticket revenue budget.
In our next video, we'll delve into specific data sources and strategies to refine your annual fund projections.